Carrefour reported a fairly solid third quarter on the evening of 20 October and, in the same release, cut its full-year targets. In between came a weekend. On 17 and 18 October, violence and looting on the sidelines of cost-of-living protests hit thousands of shops across France. Around fifty of the group’s stores were among them, according to chief executive Alexandre Bompard.
A quarter in line with, or slightly above, expectations
Quarterly sales reached €22.7 billion including VAT, up 3.9% on a reported basis and 2.3% like-for-like, after +2.1% in the first half. Food rose 2.7% and non-food fell 1.1%. The analyst consensus reported by the financial press had expected +2.1%.
France lagged: €11.9 billion and +1.2% like-for-like, with food up 1.6% and non-food down 2.2%. Spain grew 2.1% and Brazil 1.4%. The Belgium, Poland and Argentina block rose 8.4%, driven by Argentina (+24.2%), while Poland fell 4.3%. Group e-commerce sales grew 18%.
2026 targets lowered
Carrefour now expects its recurring operating margin to rise by 0 to 15 basis points, against more than 25 basis points previously. Adjusted earnings per share are now expected to be stable or slightly up, instead of growing in the high single digits. Net free cash flow should edge down. Capital expenditure is cut from €1.7 billion to €1.6 billion, through reductions in France.
“The events that have occurred in France in recent days have affected a significant number of our stores located in urban areas,” Alexandre Bompard said in the release. It refers to shorter opening hours due to curfews, lower footfall and higher security and logistics costs. It gives no amount.
The figure came later, on the analyst call: €80 million to €200 million of impact on full-year recurring operating income, according to AFP. Direct costs, stolen goods and repairs, amount to “several tens of millions of euros”, chief financial officer Matthieu Malige said. The rest comes from indirect effects, according to research firm Alphavalue.
A shock well beyond Carrefour
The French government estimates that around 3,000 shops were damaged or looted over the weekend, according to AFP. The network of chambers of commerce counts 2,000. No official damage assessment has been published yet. According to Alphavalue, Carrefour’s high market share in the Paris region and its urban network make it particularly exposed.
The market reacted fast. On 21 October the shares fell 12.24% in early trading to €14.31, the steepest drop on the CAC 40. Jefferies, quoted by AFP, said the scale of the impact is hard to assess, and that slower French sales in September and further price cuts were already worrying investors.
Alexandre Bompard is holding course: “Our strategic roadmap remains unchanged.” The fourth quarter, with its holiday season, will show whether shoppers come back.
Sources
- Carrefour, third-quarter 2026 sales release (in French), 20 October 2026
- AFP, 20 October 2026 (via Yahoo Finance, in French)
- AFP, 21 October 2026 (via Fortuneo, in French)
- iFRAP, 20 October 2026, for the chambers of commerce count (in French)
- Tradingsat, 21 October 2026, for the consensus and Alphavalue’s analysis (in French)
Photo: Benoît Prieur, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed CC0.